Understanding the economy's ebb and flow can get complicated. But we've made it easy for investors, by sifting through the piles of economic data out there and plucking out a selection of key economic indicators. Use the applet below to examine some of the most common statistics that economists watch. For example, the gross domestic product, the key measure of the economy's overall output from quarter to quarter, is a good indicator of where the economy's been. To gauge where it's headed, click on some of the other indicators, which show consumer purchasing trends, buyers' moods, export orders and job growth.
Last updated: 9/2/08
What the Indicators Mean:
Gross Domestic Product
As the barometer of the nation's total output of goods and services, GDP is the broadest of the nation's economic measures. Despite a raft of problems in Asia, Russia and Latin America last year, the U.S. economy managed to post strong growth. This year may not be as kind. Consensus estimates are for growth of 2.3%.
Job Growth
A key to understanding consumer sentiment is job growth. Consumers feel more at ease when the job market is expanding. But when job growth contracts to 100,000 or less month to month, watch out the economy could be headed for a slowdown. Currently, this indicator bodes well for the economy.
Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board maintains this index of consumer sentiment based on monthly interviews with 5,000 households. After hitting historical highs last summer, the index has been falling.
Weekly Retail Sales
The Census Bureau reports retail sales figures monthly, but if you want to know how sales are going before that, take a look at LJR Redbook's retail averages. The numbers are based on interviews with managers at a wide range of stores. Retailers typically plan for 5% year-to-year growth in same-store sales. Lately, the figures have been just shy of those levels.
Monthly Retail Sales
For the big picture in retail sales, check out the monthly reports from the Census Bureau and watch for changes in the trend line. After falling this summer, sales have rebounded, indicating that consumers are still in a generous mood.
Earnings Growth Rates
Historically, earnings have been a key factor in determining share prices. Lately, the correlation has been less pronounced, but the numbers still give investors a sense of the economy's strength.
Institute for Supply Management
The ISM's index is viewed as a solid measurement of whether the manufacturing economy is contracting or expanding. Each month, more than 400 companies provide the ISM with data on changes in production, new orders, new export orders, imports, employment, inventories, prices, lead times and the timeliness of supplier deliveries. By compiling the responses, the ISM is able to piece together a national economic picture. An index reading above 50% indicates the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; a reading below 50% means it's contracting.